In Conversation: Robin Goodchild
15 July 2022

Riding the cycles

Among property researchers, Robin Goodchild is probably best known for his work analysing the similarities and differences between UK real estate cycles, and it was clear from this In Conversation interview, which was conducted by SPR Chair Hamish Smith, that volatile periods in the market have also had a big role in shaping his distinguished career.

This was particularly evident relative to the boom-bust of the late 1980s and early 1990s, when Robin’s role heading Gerald Eve’s recently created investment department was harshly cut short, as, in his words, it was ‘hard to make a living from investment portfolios’ in the bear market of 1990-91. Describing what was clearly a very difficult time in typically sanguine terms, he then had a period of private consultancy that meant he could continue on ‘a rather lower cost base’. At this time, he undertook mainly academically focused projects, such as one alongside City University on compulsory purchase orders.

However, when it came to the roller-coaster market of Global Financial Crisis, Robin was able to exploit his hard-earned experience of earlier cycles to the benefit of his clients. As head of research at LaSalle Investment Management, his insights were a crucial influence on investment timing for one of the UK’s largest pension funds, which sold assets in the upswing of 2005-6, then re-invested after the crash of 2008-9 and went on to realise big gains on a number of retail warehouse parks. He explained that the research input to these decisions relied on understanding how bank lending can exacerbate market volatility, often with the lenders themselves unaware of the effect of their actions.

Although Robin may be best known for his work on cycles, he said that he was proudest of his research on the residential sector, which has contributed to its recognition as a suitable asset for institutional investment in the UK. There have been significant challenges to overcome, including a lack of existing stock and the prevailing management structures, but a number of larger scale managers, including LaSalle, have come to recognise its relatively low risk and complementary patterns of performance to commercial real estate.

Robin began his professional career as a Chartered Surveyor, the third generation of his family to do so; but even if the profession was ‘in his blood’, this was clearly never going to be enough for someone with such an enquiring mindset. His interest in the impact of the Betterment Tax on property development instigated by Labour governments in the 1970s led to a research project in tandem with his surveying work at Gerald Eve, which evolved into a book and PhD thesis. In effect, he had embarked on property research when the field barely existed, at the same time as Russell Schiller started his explorations of the market at Hillier Parker.

Gerald Eve soon asked Robin to set up a research department, which had a wider remit than the market-related work favoured by other agents and also extended into the legal and policy areas that have proved to be a constant thread running through his career. It is striking how much property research as it now exists owes to the pioneers like Robin who were motivated more by a thirst for understanding than by commercial ambitions, and who have been prepared to explore a range of themes that have ultimately benefited the wider real estate industry.